Model: TipA1

Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri

PREDICTION

@ 2.88

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 16, 2026 11:15 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 3d 5h

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.82% · n=246

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is KA Akureyri. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: KA AkureyriGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.130 | A: -0.086

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

51/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Valur ReykjavikHOME

KA AkureyriAWAY

WLLDW

Recent form

LLDDW

Avg goals scored

1.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.60

Shots on target for

3.40

5.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.80

4.60

Home splitL-L-W-L-D1.20 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-L-L1.20 scored / 2.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.88. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.82% based on n=246 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Iceland Premier League (is). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.88

V2 BandHIGHROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.82% · n=246

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to KA Akureyri's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 2.9% 7D: 11.1% 15D: 12.2% 30D: 10.7%

Model insight

Valur Reykjavik – KA Akureyri Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.88. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.52% across 654 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.82% across 246 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample144

Win Rate34.0%

Profit-2.00u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Puskas Academy II - Komarom VSE	2.75	5.52%
LOSS	Lyn 1896 II - Fram	3.00	5.52%
LOSS	Debreceni VSC - Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	2.80	5.52%
LOSS	Szentlorinc SE - FC Nagykanizsa	2.75	5.52%
LOSS	Weston Super Mare - Chesham	3.10	5.52%
LOSS	Kings Lynn Town - Harborough Town	3.00	5.52%
WIN	Aparecidense U20 - Planalto EC U20	2.70	6.36%
LOSS	Estudiantes Merida - Zamora	3.10	5.52%

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Pick

2 @ 2.88

Kickoff

Ago 16, 2026 11:15 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 5.52% • n=654

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.82% • n=246

Start

Starts in 3d 5h

Updated

Updated 1d 2h ago