Model: TIPPSA

CD Derio vs San Ignacio

PREDICTION

@ 3.15

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 13, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultLOSS3 - 1

StartStarted 2d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.07% · n=461

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is San Ignacio. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: San IgnacioGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.146 | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.10First seen

Current3.21Now

Max odds3.21Highest point

Min odds3.10Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CD DerioHOME

San IgnacioAWAY

WLLLL

Recent form

LWLWL

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.40

Shots on target for

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

4.80

3.20

Home splitW-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitL-W-W-D1.25 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.15. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.07% based on n=461 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Copa Federacion (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.15

V2 BandNONEROI -1.07% · n=461

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, San Ignacio has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -13.1% 7D: 3.4% 15D: 10.0% 30D: 8.5%

Model insight

CD Derio – San Ignacio Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.15. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.07% across 461 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample58

Win Rate31.0%

Profit-2.54u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Fulham - VfB Stuttgart	2.94	-1.07%
LOSS	Mold Alexandra - Holyhead Hotspur	2.98	-1.07%
LOSS	Kubikenborgs IF - Täfteå IK	2.92	-1.07%
LOSS	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados FC	3.01	-1.07%
LOSS	Huehuetecos FC - Deportivo Gomerano	3.39	-0.79%
LOSS	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Chongqing Tonglianglong	3.14	-1.07%
LOSS	Orange County SC - El Paso Locomotive FC	3.00	-1.07%
WIN	HNK Gorica - NK Osijek	3.11	-1.07%

Pick

2 @ 3.15

Kickoff

Ago 13, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -1.07% • n=461

Start

Started 2d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 3h ago