Newport County vs Rochdale
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Newport County. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Newport CountyGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.196 | A: -0.008Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.04. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.01% based on n=821 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England League 2 (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Newport County is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Newport County – Rochdale Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | KF Drenica Skenderaj - KF Dukagjini | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Bergantinos - Lugo | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Workington - Redcar Athletic | 3.02 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Hapoel Afula - Maccabi Bnei Raina | 3.00 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | CSD Amatitlan - Quiche FC | 3.20 | 0.01% |
| WIN | FK Bokelj - Sutjeska Niksic | 3.00 | 0.01% |
| WIN | AD Marco 09 - Pacos Ferreira | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Polissya Zhytomyr II - FC Metalist Kharkiv | 3.00 | 0.01% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debreceni VSC - Gyori ETO | 1 | 3.00 | 0.01% | 15 Aug 17:00 |
| CD Universitario - Union Cocle | 1 | 3.10 | 0.01% | 16 Aug 03:30 |