Model: TIPPSA

Samgurali vs FC Rustavi

PREDICTION

@ 2.22

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 30, 2026 7:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 2d ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FC Rustavi. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FC RustaviGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.016 | A: 0.139

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.33First seen

Current2.22Now

Max odds2.33Highest point

Min odds2.20Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SamguraliHOME

FC RustaviAWAY

DLWLW

Recent form

DWWWW

Avg goals scored

1.60

2.20

Defensive weakness

2.20

0.40

Shots on target for

4.40

6.60

SoT conceded pressure

4.40

2.60

Home splitD-L-W-W-W1.40 scored / 1.60 conceded

Away splitD-W-W-L-W1.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.22. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.21% based on n=228 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Georgia Erovnuli Liga (ge). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.22

V2 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to FC Rustavi's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -2.3% 7D: 6.7% 15D: 14.7% 30D: 9.2%

Model insight

Samgurali – FC Rustavi Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.22. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.21% and 1.21%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample169

Win Rate49.1%

Profit+9.92u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Dalian Young Boy - Shanghai Shenhua	2.24	1.76%
WIN	FC United of Manchester - Avro FC	2.10	1.21%
WIN	Briton Ferry - Barry Town	2.03	1.21%
LOSS	Derby U21 - West Brom U21	2.47	0.84%
LOSS	Valur Reykjavik - IA Akranes	2.47	0.84%
WIN	Widzew Lodz - Lech Poznan	2.18	1.21%
WIN	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2.01	1.76%
WIN	Darmstadt - Hannover 96	2.17	1.76%

Pick

2 @ 2.22

Kickoff

Ago 30, 2026 7:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.21% • n=228

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.21% • n=228

Start

Started 2d ago

Updated

Updated 2d 2h ago