Model: TIPPSA

Rodina Moscow vs Baltika Kaliningrad

PREDICTION

@ 2.02

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 30, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultWIN0 - 3

StartStarted 9h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.76% · n=65

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.76% · n=65

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 14h 16m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Baltika Kaliningrad. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Baltika KaliningradGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.076 | A: -0.066

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

31/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.95First seen

Current2.05Now

Max odds2.06Highest point

Min odds1.95Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Rodina MoscowHOME

Baltika KaliningradAWAY

LLLDW

Recent form

WDDLW

Avg goals scored

1.40

1.60

Defensive weakness

2.80

0.80

Shots on target for

2.80

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

7.80

2.60

Home splitL-L-D-W-L2.20 scored / 2.80 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-L-L1.20 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.02. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.76% based on n=65 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Russia Premier League (ru). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.02

V2 BandLOWROI 1.76% · n=65

V4 BandLOWROI 1.76% · n=65

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Baltika Kaliningrad. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Baltika Kaliningrad is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -2.3% 7D: 8.8% 15D: 14.0% 30D: 9.2%

Model insight

Rodina Moscow – Baltika Kaliningrad Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.02. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.76% and 1.76%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample118

Win Rate51.7%

Profit+9.57u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Widzew Lodz - Lech Poznan	2.18	1.21%
WIN	Darmstadt - Hannover 96	2.17	1.76%
WIN	Lokomotiv Moscow - Dinamo Moscow	2.20	1.21%
WIN	East Coast Bays - Auckland United FC	2.05	1.21%
WIN	HNK Rijeka - Midtjylland	2.27	0.84%
LOSS	FC Naples - Union Omaha	2.25	0.84%
WIN	Stockport U21 - Charlton U21	2.24	1.21%
LOSS	Chapecoense - Sao Paulo	2.11	1.21%

Pick

2 @ 2.02

Kickoff

Ago 30, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.76% • n=65

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.76% • n=65

Start

Started 9h ago

Updated

Updated 14h 16m ago