Montevideo Wanderers – Cerro

Model: TIPPSH

Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.60
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 02, 2026 1:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 2h 36m ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=113
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=113
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 4h 38m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Montevideo Wanderers. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Montevideo WanderersGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.023 | A: 0.054

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

66/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.17First seen
Current3.60Now
Max odds3.64Highest point
Min odds2.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Montevideo WanderersHOME
VS
CerroAWAY
DWLDW
Recent form
DDLWW
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.40
Shots on target for
4.60
2.40
SoT conceded pressure
2.80
3.00
Home splitD-W-D-W-D1.40 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitD-D-L-W-L0.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.60. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.69% based on n=113 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Cup (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.60
V2 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=113
V4 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=113
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market prices Montevideo Wanderers as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Montevideo Wanderers is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 5.6% 7D: 7.9% 15D: 17.9% 30D: 7.5%
Model insight

Montevideo Wanderers – Cerro Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.60. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.69% and 7.69%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample15
Win Rate26.7%
Profit-0.41u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSFK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc - CFR Cluj3.765.87%
WINPartizan Belgrade - Getafe3.805.56%
WINNumancia - Real Zaragoza3.607.69%
LOSSCA Timbuense - Newell's3.755.87%
LOSSDC Power (W) - Carolina Ascent (W)3.427.69%
LOSSPortugal U20 (W) - England U20 (W)3.467.69%
LOSSBjelovar - NK Krizevci3.795.87%
LOSSFK Zalgiris Vilnius - Hajduk Split3.527.69%
Pick
1 @ 3.60
Kickoff
Set 02, 2026 1:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 7.69% • n=113
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
7.69% • n=113
Start
Started 2h 36m ago
Updated
Updated 4h 38m ago
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