Aragua – Bolivar SC

Model: TIPPSH

Aragua vs Bolivar SC

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.32
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 02, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 1d ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Aragua. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AraguaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.030 | A: 0.090

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.04First seen
Current2.32Now
Max odds2.32Highest point
Min odds2.04Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AraguaHOME
VS
Bolivar SCAWAY
WLDLW
Recent form
LLDWD
Avg goals scored
1.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.20
0.80
Shots on target for
4.20
2.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
3.60
Home splitW-L-W-D-W1.20 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-D-D-L-L0.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.32. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.59% based on n=2341 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Venezuela Segunda Division (ve). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.32
V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Aragua's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 17.4% 7D: 5.3% 15D: 7.7% 30D: 7.5%
Model insight

Aragua – Bolivar SC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.32. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample263
Win Rate45.2%
Profit+3.91u
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LOSSReal Sociedad B - Huesca2.141.31%
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Pick
1 @ 2.32
Kickoff
Ago 02, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341
Start
Started 1d ago
Updated
Updated 1d 3h ago
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