Baltika Kaliningrad – Spartak Moscow

Model: TIPPSA

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Spartak Moscow

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.13
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 8:30 PM
ResultWIN1 - 2
StartStarted 1d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Spartak Moscow. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Spartak MoscowGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.052 | A: 0.030

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

23/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.99First seen
Current2.13Now
Max odds2.13Highest point
Min odds1.94Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Baltika KaliningradHOME
VS
Spartak MoscowAWAY
LWLWL
Recent form
WLWWW
Avg goals scored
1.20
2.60
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.00
Shots on target for
4.00
6.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
3.40
Home splitL-W-L-L-L0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitW-W-D-D-L1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.13. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.84% based on n=515 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Russia Premier League (ru). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.13
V2 BandNONEROI -0.84% · n=515
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Spartak Moscow a useful statistical edge. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Spartak Moscow is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -20.8% 7D: -18.3% 15D: -0.3% 30D: 3.5%
Model insight

Baltika Kaliningrad – Spartak Moscow Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.13. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.84% across 515 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample78
Win Rate42.3%
Profit-7.86u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSStord - Åsane Fotball 22.11-0.84%
WINFollo - Rana FK2.09-0.84%
LOSSRacing Santander - Villarreal2.12-0.84%
LOSSPlatense - Boca Juniors2.03-0.84%
LOSSFuerte San Francisco - AD Isidro Metapan2.05-0.84%
WINFF Jaro II - Huima/Urho2.08-0.84%
LOSSUE Olot - UE Sant Andreu2.09-0.84%
WINMacarthur Rams - Blacktown Spartans2.17-0.84%
Pick
2 @ 2.13
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 8:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.84% • n=515
Start
Started 1d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 4h ago
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