Model: TipTromba5H

CD Guadalajara vs Real Madrid B

PREDICTION

@ 4.50

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 23, 2026 8:30 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 2

StartStarted 48d 22h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.52% · n=105

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.52% · n=105

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 49d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is CD Guadalajara. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CD Guadalajara

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

50/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.26First seen

Current5.05Now

Max odds5.05Highest point

Min odds3.26Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CD GuadalajaraHOME

Real Madrid BAWAY

DLWDD

Recent form

DDLWW

Avg goals scored

1.60

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.40

2.00

Shots on target for

3.40

4.00

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

3.40

Home splitD-W-L-W1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Away splitD-L-W-W2.50 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.50. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.52% based on n=105 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.50

V2 BandLOWROI 1.52% · n=105

V4 BandLOWROI 1.52% · n=105

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 16.5% 7D: 16.0% 15D: 14.2% 30D: 1.4%

Model insight

CD Guadalajara – Real Madrid B Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.52% and 1.52%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample8

Win Rate50.0%

Profit+10.00u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Vilavelhense - Vitoria ES	4.50	1.52%
WIN	SC Grobinas - FK Liepaja	4.50	1.52%
LOSS	Barcelona SP U23 - Manthiqueira U23	4.50	1.52%
WIN	HB Torshavn II - FC Suduroy	4.50	1.52%
WIN	Cambodia - Hong Kong	4.50	1.52%
WIN	Deportivo Liniers - Villa Dalmine	4.50	1.52%
LOSS	Swidniczanka Swidnik - Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4.50	1.52%

Pick

1 @ 4.50

Kickoff

Mag 23, 2026 8:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.52% • n=105

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.52% • n=105

Start

Started 48d 22h ago

Updated

Updated 49d 4h ago