Model: TipA1

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

PREDICTION

@ 2.30

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 30, 2026 12:00 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2d 11h

V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.14% · n=199

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.14% · n=199

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 23h 24m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Vasco da Gama. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Vasco da GamaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.035 | A: -0.031

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

67/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.43First seen

Current2.35Now

Max odds2.43Highest point

Min odds2.35Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ChapecoenseHOME

Vasco da GamaAWAY

DLLWW

Recent form

DDLLW

Avg goals scored

1.40

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.00

Shots on target for

4.40

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

5.40

3.40

Home splitL-W-D-L-W1.80 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitD-L-L-L-W1.20 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 11.14% based on n=199 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie A (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.30

V2 BandELITEROI 11.14% · n=199

V4 BandELITEROI 11.14% · n=199

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. The model places this selection in a historically favorable confidence range. Vasco da Gama has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -11.9% 7D: 2.8% 15D: 9.7% 30D: 19.4%

Model insight

Chapecoense – Vasco da Gama Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.30. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 11.14% and 11.14%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample21

Win Rate61.9%

Profit+9.20u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Bogota FC - Union Magdalena	2.50	11.14%
WIN	Haukar (W) - HK Kopavogur (W)	2.30	11.14%
LOSS	Leon U19 - Atlas U19	2.38	11.14%
LOSS	Parnu JK Vaprus - JK Tammeka Tartu	2.38	11.14%
WIN	FK Kyzylzhar - FC Elimai Semey	2.10	11.04%
LOSS	Milwaukee Torrent (W) - Bavarian United (W)	2.38	11.14%
WIN	Räppe GOIF - Staffanstorp United	2.50	11.14%
WIN	Gyeongju HNP - Pocheon Citizen FC	2.25	11.14%

Pick

2 @ 2.30

Kickoff

Lug 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: ELITE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 11.14% • n=199

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

11.14% • n=199

Start

Starts in 2d 11h

Updated

Updated 23h 24m ago