Model: TipA1

Cimarrones de Sonora FC vs Club Celaya

PREDICTION

@ 3.70

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffApr 26, 2026 6:00 AM

ResultLOSS2 - 1

StartStarted 77d 16h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.37% · n=88

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.37% · n=88

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 78d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Club Celaya. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Club Celaya

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

45/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.94First seen

Current3.96Now

Max odds3.96Highest point

Min odds3.90Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Cimarrones de Sonora FCHOME

Club CelayaAWAY

WLDDW

Recent form

LWWWD

Avg goals scored

1.80

2.20

Defensive weakness

1.00

Shots on target for

2.33

9.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

2.00

Home splitW-D1.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-W1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.70. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.37% based on n=88 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Mexico Segunda Division (mx). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.70

V2 BandLOWROI 1.37% · n=88

V4 BandLOWROI 1.37% · n=88

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Club Celaya has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Club Celaya has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -8.9% 7D: 0.8% 15D: 6.4% 30D: 15.2%

Model insight

Cimarrones de Sonora FC – Club Celaya Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.70. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.37% and 1.37%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample21

Win Rate19.0%

Profit-6.90u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	CD Lujan - CSD Fontana	3.50	1.91%
WIN	HJS U21 - LePa U21	3.60	1.91%
LOSS	Belgrano - Union Santa Fe	3.50	1.44%
LOSS	Real Cartagena - Union Magdalena	3.60	1.44%
LOSS	TP-47 - SJK Akatemia II	3.70	1.37%
LOSS	Kiffen - Atlantis	3.50	1.44%
LOSS	Leca - SC Vianense	3.50	1.44%
LOSS	Club Comunicaciones - CS Dock Sud	3.70	1.44%

Pick

2 @ 3.70

Kickoff

Apr 26, 2026 6:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.37% • n=88

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.37% • n=88

Start

Started 77d 16h ago

Updated

Updated 78d 2h ago