Model: TipA1

EL Nacional (W) vs Quito FC (W)

PREDICTION

@ 2.55

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 08, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 4

StartStarted 63d 17h ago

V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.72% · n=183

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 11.72% · n=183

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 64d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Quito FC (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Quito FC (W)

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

72/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

EL Nacional (W)HOME

Quito FC (W)AWAY

LLLLL

Recent form

WLLLL

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.60

Defensive weakness

4.60

2.80

Shots on target for

5.00

7.00

SoT conceded pressure

13.33

6.00

Home splitL-L-L0.67 scored / 3.00 conceded

Away splitW-L-L1.67 scored / 2.67 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.55. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 11.72% based on n=183 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.55

V2 BandELITEROI 11.72% · n=183

V4 BandELITEROI 11.72% · n=183

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar ELITE underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. Quito FC (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -34.8% 7D: -18.4% 15D: -6.7% 30D: 6.2%

Model insight

EL Nacional (W) – Quito FC (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.55. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 11.72% and 11.72%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample19

Win Rate57.9%

Profit+9.35u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Milwaukee Torrent (W) - Bavarian United (W)	2.38	11.14%
WIN	Räppe GOIF - Staffanstorp United	2.50	11.14%
LOSS	CD Nueva Santa Cruz - Virginia USC	2.75	9.73%
WIN	Minnesota Bliss (W) - St Croix SC (W)	2.35	11.14%
WIN	Fremantle City FC (W) - Balcatta FC (W)	2.70	11.14%
WIN	Sobradinho U20 - Capital CF U20	2.80	9.73%
LOSS	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising FC	2.80	12.47%
WIN	Heidelberg United (W) - Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	2.45	11.14%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Parnu JK Vaprus - JK Tammeka Tartu	2	2.38	11.14%	11 Jul 13:30

Pick

2 @ 2.55

Kickoff

Mag 08, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: ELITE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 11.72% • n=183

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

11.72% • n=183

Start

Started 63d 17h ago

Updated

Updated 64d 5h ago