Elfsborg (W) – KIF Orebro (W)

Model: TIPPSH

Elfsborg (W) vs KIF Orebro (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.09
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 21, 2026 8:30 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 1
StartStarted 5h 21m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 7h 23m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Elfsborg (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Elfsborg (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.055 | A: -0.085

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.79First seen
Current2.09Now
Max odds2.09Highest point
Min odds1.69Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Elfsborg (W)HOME
VS
KIF Orebro (W)AWAY
LWWWD
Recent form
WWLWW
Avg goals scored
2.20
1.60
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.20
Shots on target for
8.20
6.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
3.80
Home splitL-D-W-D-W1.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-L-W-W-W1.60 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.09. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Sweden Elitettan (se). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.09
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Elfsborg (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 48.2% 7D: 14.1% 15D: 4.9% 30D: 5.1%
Model insight

Elfsborg (W) – KIF Orebro (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample669
Win Rate49.0%
Profit+3.67u
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WINFK Mornar Bar - Buducnost Podgorica2.031.04%
WINHooGee - EPS Reservi2.051.04%
WINReal Pilar Reserves - Excursionistas Reserves1.991.04%
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Pick
1 @ 2.09
Kickoff
Ago 21, 2026 8:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 5h 21m ago
Updated
Updated 7h 23m ago
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