Empoli – Avellino

Model: TIPPSA

Empoli vs Avellino

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.93
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 01, 2026 5:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 0
StartStarted 71d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.07% · n=37
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 71d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Avellino. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Avellino

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

52/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.36First seen
Current3.93Now
Max odds3.93Highest point
Min odds3.34Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

EmpoliHOME
VS
AvellinoAWAY
WLDLL
Recent form
LWWDL
Avg goals scored
0.40
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.80
Shots on target for
3.00
3.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
3.00
Home splitW-D1.00 scored / 0.50 conceded
Away splitL-W-L0.67 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.93. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.07% based on n=37 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie B (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.93
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.07% · n=37
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -31.5% 7D: -1.9% 15D: -0.2% 30D: 10.8%
Model insight

Empoli – Avellino Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.93. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.07% across 37 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample21
Win Rate9.5%
Profit-13.20u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSItuano - Figueirense3.812.78%
LOSSSarpsborg 08 U19 - KFUM U193.893.99%
LOSSVaxjo (W) - IK Uppsala (W)4.173.92%
LOSSUSA - Paraguay3.973.92%
LOSSAskoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC4.042.78%
LOSSRanheim - Sandnes Ulf3.753.92%
LOSSJunior - Independiente Santa Fe4.103.92%
LOSSGremio Novorizontino - Ceara4.083.99%
Pick
2 @ 3.93
Kickoff
Mag 01, 2026 5:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.07% • n=37
Start
Started 71d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 71d 5h ago
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