Estrela Amadora U23 – UD Leiria U23

Model: TIPPSH

Estrela Amadora U23 vs UD Leiria U23

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.46
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 08, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 1d 10h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.15% · n=323
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 12h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Estrela Amadora U23. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Estrela Amadora U23Goal/Shots Index — H: -0.223 | A: 0.168

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

41/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.63First seen
Current2.46Now
Max odds2.70Highest point
Min odds2.35Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Estrela Amadora U23HOME
VS
UD Leiria U23AWAY
WLDLL
Recent form
LWWDW
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.60
0.80
Shots on target for
2.80
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
4.60
Home splitW-L-L1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded
Away splitL-W-D-W1.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.46. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.15% based on n=323 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal U23 League (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.46
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.15% · n=323
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 5.7% 7D: 6.1% 15D: 5.0% 30D: 5.0%
Model insight

Estrela Amadora U23 – UD Leiria U23 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.46. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.15% across 323 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample231
Win Rate42.4%
Profit+5.75u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINNK Brezice - ND Dravinja2.273.15%
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LOSSIspe FC - Mahar United2.312.49%
LOSSClub Brugge - Aston Villa2.622.49%
LOSSGetafe - Celta Vigo2.492.49%
WINHJK Helsinki - FC Inter2.623.15%
LOSSSEISA OSA Rheia FC (W) - Veertien Mie (W)2.302.49%
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Pick
1 @ 2.46
Kickoff
Set 08, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.15% • n=323
Start
Started 1d 10h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 12h ago
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