Fluminense – Vasco da Gama

Model: TIPPSH

Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.21
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 06, 2026 4:30 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 3
StartStarted 6h 41m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 8h 45m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fluminense. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FluminenseGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.028 | A: 0.002

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

31/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.09First seen
Current2.21Now
Max odds2.39Highest point
Min odds2.06Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FluminenseHOME
VS
Vasco da GamaAWAY
LDDDD
Recent form
WDWDD
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.40
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.80
Shots on target for
4.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
2.40
Home splitL-D-D-W-W2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-D-L-L-L1.40 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.21. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Copa do Brasil (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.21
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 17.7% 7D: 21.6% 15D: 6.1% 30D: 10.3%
Model insight

Fluminense – Vasco da Gama Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.21. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample368
Win Rate46.7%
Profit+1.84u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINNublense - Rangers de Talca2.091.04%
WINKeflavik - KA Akureyri1.981.04%
WINAcademia de Balompie Boliviano - Real Oruro2.051.04%
WINPersebaya Surabaya - Arema FC2.191.04%
WINFC Cincinnati - Pachuca2.071.04%
WINTorque Reserves - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves1.991.04%
LOSSDynamo Makhachkala - Krylia Sovetov2.081.04%
LOSSReal Frontera - Atletico El Vigia2.041.04%
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Pick
1 @ 2.21
Kickoff
Ago 06, 2026 4:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 6h 41m ago
Updated
Updated 8h 45m ago
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