Model: TIPPSH

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC

PREDICTION

@ 2.16

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 04, 2026 4:30 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 20h 30m

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.63% · n=470

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 11m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Persebaya Surabaya. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Persebaya SurabayaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.126 | A: 0.183

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.90First seen

Current2.16Now

Max odds2.19Highest point

Min odds1.90Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Persebaya SurabayaHOME

Arema FCAWAY

WWWDW

Recent form

WWLWW

Avg goals scored

2.20

2.40

Defensive weakness

0.60

1.00

Shots on target for

6.60

3.40

SoT conceded pressure

3.40

2.40

Home splitW-W-W-D-W2.20 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-W-L-D1.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.16. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.63% based on n=470 historical similar picks. The match belongs to World Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.16

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandLOWROI 1.63% · n=470

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Persebaya Surabaya is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 38.7% 7D: 15.6% 15D: 5.3% 30D: 10.9%

Model insight

Persebaya Surabaya – Arema FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.16. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.04% and 1.63%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample397

Win Rate46.1%

Profit-9.28u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Lillestrøm 2 - Kongsvinger 2	1.92	1.31%
LOSS	Real Frontera - Atletico El Vigia	2.04	1.04%
LOSS	Bollstanäs SK - IK Franke	2.10	1.31%
WIN	Aragua - Bolivar SC	2.30	1.59%
WIN	Spartak Pleven - Marek Dupnitsa	2.22	1.04%
WIN	Udelas FC - San Francisco Reserves	2.41	1.59%
WIN	Sunderland - Wrexham	1.92	1.04%
LOSS	Darmstadt - Portsmouth	1.91	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 2.16

Kickoff

Ago 04, 2026 4:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.63% • n=470

Start

Starts in 20h 30m

Updated

Updated 11m ago