Model: TIPPSA

Heerenveen vs Ajax

PREDICTION

@ 2.09

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 17, 2026 4:30 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 55d 21h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.58% · n=409

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 56d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ajax. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ajax

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.07First seen

Current2.15Now

Max odds2.15Highest point

Min odds2.07Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

HeerenveenHOME

AjaxAWAY

DLWWL

Recent form

DLDWW

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.80

Shots on target for

3.20

5.60

SoT conceded pressure

6.80

3.80

Home splitD-W-W2.00 scored / 0.67 conceded

Away splitD-W-W1.67 scored / 0.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.09. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.58% based on n=409 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Netherlands Eredivisie (nl). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.09

V2 BandLOWROI 0.58% · n=409

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Ajax is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 5.1% 7D: 13.5% 15D: 1.4% 30D: 1.0%

Model insight

Heerenveen – Ajax Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.58% across 409 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample85

Win Rate52.9%

Profit+9.28u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Radomiak Radom - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2.04	1.21%
LOSS	Fortaleza U20 - Vasco da Gama U20	2.11	1.21%
WIN	Bentleigh Greens - Altona Magic	2.29	0.84%
WIN	Holland Park Hawks - Redlands United	2.03	1.21%
WIN	IFK Mariehamn - IF Gnistan	2.03	1.21%
LOSS	Nunawading - Keilor Park	2.25	0.84%
WIN	MyPa - PPJ	2.06	1.76%
LOSS	Odense BK II (W) - BSF (W)	2.02	1.76%

Pick

2 @ 2.09

Kickoff

Mag 17, 2026 4:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.58% • n=409

Start

Started 55d 21h ago

Updated

Updated 56d 5h ago