LDU Quito (W) – Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Model: TIPPSH

LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.93
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 13h 36m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 15h 40m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is LDU Quito (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LDU Quito (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.158 | A: 0.078

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

36/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.53First seen
Current1.93Now
Max odds1.93Highest point
Min odds1.53Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LDU Quito (W)HOME
VS
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)AWAY
WDWWW
Recent form
LDWLW
Avg goals scored
2.20
1.20
Defensive weakness
0.20
1.00
Shots on target for
6.60
2.40
SoT conceded pressure
2.40
4.80
Home splitW-W-W-W-W3.20 scored / 0.20 conceded
Away splitL-L-W-W-W1.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.93. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.93
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. LDU Quito (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -22.9% 7D: -22.8% 15D: 0.1% 30D: 3.5%
Model insight

LDU Quito (W) – Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.93. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample348
Win Rate50.0%
Profit-11.29u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSLokomotiv Plovdiv - Dunav Ruse1.783.37%
LOSSEverton de Vina - Audax Italiano1.963.37%
LOSSDinamo Samarqand - Xorazm Urganch1.763.37%
LOSSMan Utd - AC Milan1.913.37%
LOSSCD Antofagasta - Santiago Wanderers1.883.37%
WINOrense - Deportivo Cuenca2.003.37%
LOSSAl Taawon Buraidah - Al Khaleej Saihat1.803.37%
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Pick
1 @ 1.93
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Started 13h 36m ago
Updated
Updated 15h 40m ago
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