Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali

Model: TIPPSH

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.90
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 30, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 96d 8h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -3.20% · n=29
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -3.20% · n=29
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 96d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Lokomotiv Plovdiv. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Lokomotiv PlovdivGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

23/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.53First seen
Current2.90Now
Max odds3.10Highest point
Min odds2.52Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Lokomotiv PlovdivHOME
VS
Arda KardzhaliAWAY
DLWDD
Recent form
DLLWL
Avg goals scored
1.20
0.40
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.60
Shots on target for
4.20
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
5.20
Home splitD-L-W0.67 scored / 0.67 conceded
Away splitD-L0.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.90. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -3.20% based on n=29 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bulgaria Cup (bg). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.90
V2 BandNONEROI -3.20% · n=29
V4 BandNONEROI -3.20% · n=29
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 24.1% 7D: 11.6% 15D: 9.1% 30D: 15.9%
Model insight

Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Arda Kardzhali Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.90. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -3.20% and -3.20%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample44
Win Rate34.1%
Profit-0.23u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSPlymouth - Bristol City2.80-2.37%
LOSSLeones FC - Barcelona Guayaquil2.89-2.37%
LOSSAlianza - Deportes Tolima2.79-2.37%
WINFram Reykjavik (W) - Valur Reykjavik (W)2.96-2.37%
LOSSBelshina Bobruisk - FC Minsk2.96-2.37%
WINIroni Tiberias - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin2.82-2.37%
WINAguilas Doradas - Independiente Santa Fe2.80-2.37%
WINUCD - Cork City3.11-2.37%
Pick
1 @ 2.90
Kickoff
Apr 30, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -3.20% • n=29
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-3.20% • n=29
Start
Started 96d 8h ago
Updated
Updated 96d 19h ago
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