Model: TIPPSH

Lucerne vs FC Thun

PREDICTION

@ 2.31

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 25, 2026 10:30 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 4d 8h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Lucerne. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LucerneGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.003 | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.30First seen

Current2.31Now

Max odds2.31Highest point

Min odds2.30Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LucerneHOME

FC ThunAWAY

LWWWW

Recent form

LDDDL

Avg goals scored

2.20

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.20

2.60

Shots on target for

5.80

2.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

7.20

Home splitL-W-W-W-D2.20 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitL-D-D-D-L0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.31. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Switzerland Super League (ch). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.31

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Lucerne. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Lucerne's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 77.4% 7D: 32.2% 15D: 15.3% 30D: 22.2%

Model insight

Lucerne – FC Thun Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.31. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample142

Win Rate40.1%

Profit-14.29u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Columbus Crew II - Philadelphia Union II	2.17	3.37%
LOSS	North Sunshine Eagles - Eltham Redbacks	2.46	2.49%
WIN	Denver Summit FC (W) - Portland Thorns (W)	2.44	3.15%
LOSS	Spartans - Stirling	2.25	2.49%
WIN	EPS - P-Iirot	2.47	3.15%
WIN	Vikingur Reykjavik - Gyori ETO	2.47	3.15%
WIN	BFA Vilnius - FK Ekranas	2.25	3.15%
LOSS	Nautico - EC Juventude	2.27	3.15%

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Pick

1 @ 2.31

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 10:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.49% • n=1025

Start

Starts in 4d 8h

Updated

Updated 7m ago