Madura United – Bali United

Model: TIPPSA

Madura United vs Bali United

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.89
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 05, 2026 12:30 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 0
StartStarted 89d 8h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.70% · n=134
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 89d 11h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Bali United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Bali UnitedGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

54/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.41First seen
Current2.89Now
Max odds3.25Highest point
Min odds2.34Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Madura UnitedHOME
VS
Bali UnitedAWAY
WWLWW
Recent form
LWWWL
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.80
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.20
Shots on target for
3.20
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
3.40
Home splitW-L-W-L1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded
Away splitL-W-L1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.89. The V2 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 5.70% based on n=134 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Indonesia Super League (id). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.89
V2 BandHIGHROI 5.70% · n=134
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Bali United. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -26.8% 7D: -16.5% 15D: -2.5% 30D: 11.2%
Model insight

Madura United – Bali United Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.89. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.70% across 134 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample27
Win Rate40.7%
Profit+4.63u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSArarat Armenia - Shamrock Rovers3.007.70%
LOSSOLS - SalPa2.847.70%
LOSSFC Kitzbuhel - Hohenems2.827.70%
WINMaccabi Panthers Ashdod (W) - FC Ramat Hasharon (W)2.837.70%
LOSSDeportivo Moquegua - AD Tarma2.946.31%
LOSSBayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig3.006.31%
WINAubagne Air Bel - Stade Briochin2.765.70%
LOSSNantes (W) - Lyon (W)3.016.31%
Pick
2 @ 2.89
Kickoff
Mag 05, 2026 12:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.70% • n=134
Start
Started 89d 8h ago
Updated
Updated 89d 11h ago
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