Metalac Gornji – Smederevo

Model: TipA1

Metalac Gornji vs Smederevo

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.35
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 19, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 22h 38m
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.36% · n=530
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.36% · n=530
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Smederevo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: SmederevoGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.015 | A: 0.026

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

51/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.35First seen
Current2.45Now
Max odds2.45Highest point
Min odds2.35Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Metalac GornjiHOME
VS
SmederevoAWAY
LLWDW
Recent form
WWWDW
Avg goals scored
1.40
2.80
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.40
Shots on target for
3.20
6.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.80
3.80
Home splitL-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-L-W2.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.35. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.36% based on n=530 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Serbia Prva Liga (rs). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.35
V2 BandHIGHROI 6.36% · n=530
V4 BandHIGHROI 6.36% · n=530
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The HIGH confidence band reinforces the selection, with comparable historical cases showing a stronger expected profile. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Smederevo's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 21.6% 7D: -14.9% 15D: -3.3% 30D: 2.2%
Model insight

Metalac Gornji – Smederevo Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.35. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.36% and 6.36%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample78
Win Rate41.0%
Profit-0.24u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINNosaby - IFK Trelleborg2.257.37%
LOSSWexford FC (W) - FC Treaty United (W)2.386.36%
WINCSM Ramnicu Valcea - CSM Slatina2.506.36%
LOSSSK Rapid Psary - Meteor Prague VIII2.506.36%
WINFerroviario de Nampula - Black Bulls2.356.36%
LOSSHavant and W - Frome Town2.386.36%
LOSSKremser SC - Parndorf2.556.36%
LOSSAlfreton Town - Avro FC2.506.36%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
FK Macva Sabac - Radnicki Nis22.457.37%22 Aug 18:30
Pick
2 @ 2.35
Kickoff
Ago 19, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 6.36% • n=530
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
6.36% • n=530
Start
Starts in 22h 38m
Updated
Updated 11m ago
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