Model: TIPPSH

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion

PREDICTION

@ 2.28

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 25, 2026 12:00 AM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 48d 20h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.41% · n=109

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.41% · n=109

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 48d 22h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nacional Asuncion. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nacional Asuncion

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

33/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.08First seen

Current2.28Now

Max odds2.45Highest point

Min odds2.08Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nacional AsuncionHOME

Libertad AsuncionAWAY

WDWWW

Recent form

LLDWL

Avg goals scored

1.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

0.80

1.80

Shots on target for

5.20

2.60

SoT conceded pressure

1.80

4.80

Home splitW-W-W-D1.50 scored / 0.75 conceded

Away splitL-L-W-L-L1.00 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.28. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.41% based on n=109 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Paraguay Division Profesional (py). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.28

V2 BandLOWROI 1.41% · n=109

V4 BandLOWROI 1.41% · n=109

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Nacional Asuncion a useful statistical edge. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Nacional Asuncion has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 32.1% 7D: 22.0% 15D: 15.6% 30D: 5.7%

Model insight

Nacional Asuncion – Libertad Asuncion Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.28. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.41% and 1.41%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample204

Win Rate47.1%

Profit+7.22u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Fremantle City FC (W) - Perth Redstar FC (W)	2.25	1.59%
LOSS	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) - Northern Tigers FC (W)	2.20	1.04%
LOSS	Barra FC - Santa Cruz FC	2.28	1.59%
LOSS	Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II	2.07	1.04%
WIN	Brisbane Roar NPL - Rochedale Rovers	2.50	1.59%
WIN	Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes	2.10	1.04%
WIN	Nublense - O'Higgins	2.39	1.41%
WIN	Warta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II	2.05	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.28

Kickoff

Mag 25, 2026 12:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.41% • n=109

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.41% • n=109

Start

Started 48d 20h ago

Updated

Updated 48d 22h ago