Model: TIPPSH

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion

PREDICTION

@ 2.28

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 25, 2026 12:00 AM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 47d 19h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.41% · n=109

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.41% · n=109

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 47d 21h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nacional Asuncion. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nacional Asuncion

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

33/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.08First seen

Current2.28Now

Max odds2.45Highest point

Min odds2.08Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nacional AsuncionHOME

Libertad AsuncionAWAY

WDWWW

Recent form

LLDWL

Avg goals scored

1.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

0.80

1.80

Shots on target for

5.20

2.60

SoT conceded pressure

1.80

4.80

Home splitW-W-W-D1.50 scored / 0.75 conceded

Away splitL-L-W-L-L1.00 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.28. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.41% based on n=109 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Paraguay Division Profesional (py). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.28

V2 BandLOWROI 1.41% · n=109

V4 BandLOWROI 1.41% · n=109

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Nacional Asuncion's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 32.1% 7D: 22.0% 15D: 15.6% 30D: 5.7%

Model insight

Nacional Asuncion – Libertad Asuncion Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.28. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.41% and 1.41%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample200

Win Rate47.5%

Profit+8.97u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Brisbane Roar NPL - Rochedale Rovers	2.50	1.59%
WIN	Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes	2.10	1.04%
WIN	Nublense - O'Higgins	2.39	1.41%
WIN	Warta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II	2.05	1.04%
LOSS	Gimcheon Sangmu FC - Bucheon	2.06	1.04%
LOSS	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion FC	2.10	1.04%
WIN	Athlone Town - Cobh Ramblers	2.51	1.59%
LOSS	Cheonan City - Gimhae FC 2008	2.19	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 2.28

Kickoff

Mag 25, 2026 12:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.41% • n=109

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.41% • n=109

Start

Started 47d 19h ago

Updated

Updated 47d 21h ago