Model: TIPPSA

Nacional Potosi vs Club Aurora

PREDICTION

@ 3.87

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 10, 2026 4:00 AM

ResultLOSS2 - 0

StartStarted 1d 5h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.92% · n=146

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.73% · n=54

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 11h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Club Aurora. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Club Aurora

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

58/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds4.20First seen

Current4.05Now

Max odds4.51Highest point

Min odds3.90Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nacional PotosiHOME

Club AuroraAWAY

WLDLD

Recent form

LWWDW

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.20

Shots on target for

4.20

5.40

SoT conceded pressure

6.40

4.40

Home splitW-D-W1.33 scored / 0.33 conceded

Away splitL-W-W-D-D1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.87. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.73% based on n=54 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bolivia Primera Division (bo). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.87

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.92% · n=146

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.73% · n=54

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Club Aurora shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Club Aurora has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 16.6% 7D: 16.1% 15D: 28.6% 30D: 16.3%

Model insight

Nacional Potosi – Club Aurora Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.87. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.92% and 4.73%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample24

Win Rate8.3%

Profit-16.20u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Ituano - Figueirense	3.81	2.78%
LOSS	Sarpsborg 08 U19 - KFUM U19	3.89	3.99%
LOSS	USA - Paraguay	3.97	3.92%
LOSS	Askoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC	4.04	2.78%
LOSS	Ranheim - Sandnes Ulf	3.75	3.92%
LOSS	Los Angeles FC - Seattle Sounders	3.65	4.77%
LOSS	Junior - Independiente Santa Fe	4.10	3.92%
LOSS	Gremio Novorizontino - Ceara	4.08	3.99%

Pick

2 @ 3.87

Kickoff

Lug 10, 2026 4:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.92% • n=146

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.73% • n=54

Start

Started 1d 5h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 11h ago