Model: TIPPSH

South Melbourne U23 vs Green Gully U23

PREDICTION

@ 1.99

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 28, 2026 6:30 AM

ResultWIN3 - 2

StartStarted 45d 10h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 45d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is South Melbourne U23. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: South Melbourne U23Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.00First seen

Current1.99Now

Max odds2.06Highest point

Min odds1.89Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

South Melbourne U23HOME

Green Gully U23AWAY

WLLWL

Recent form

LWLLW

Avg goals scored

2.40

2.00

Defensive weakness

2.20

2.40

Shots on target for

6.40

5.40

SoT conceded pressure

6.20

4.20

Home splitW-L-L-L-L1.60 scored / 3.40 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-D-W1.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.99. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia NPL Victoria U23 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.99

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. South Melbourne U23 has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 27.6% 7D: 13.3% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 1.1%

Model insight

South Melbourne U23 – Green Gully U23 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.99. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample622

Win Rate50.2%

Profit-8.99u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Measurers Club - Rainbow AC	1.98	1.04%
WIN	New York City FC II - Orlando City II	2.14	1.04%
LOSS	Berwick Rangers - Hearts B	2.04	1.31%
WIN	Alloa - Stranraer	1.80	1.04%
WIN	Banbury - Racing Club Warwick	1.93	1.31%
WIN	FC Koper U19 - NK Fuzinar U19	1.83	1.31%
WIN	KCCA - Kitara FC	1.88	1.04%
WIN	Drøbak/Frogn - Sandefjord 2	1.88	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.99

Kickoff

Giu 28, 2026 6:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 45d 10h ago

Updated

Updated 45d 13h ago