Model: TIPPSH

St Pauli vs HNK Gorica

PREDICTION

@ 2.01

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 19, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 4h 4m

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9h 47m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is St Pauli. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: St Pauli

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.67First seen

Current1.69Now

Max odds1.69Highest point

Min odds1.67Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

St PauliHOME

HNK GoricaAWAY

WWWLL

Recent form

WLWWL

Avg goals scored

3.00

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.20

Shots on target for

8.00

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

6.20

4.00

Home splitL-L-D-L0.75 scored / 2.75 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-W-L1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.01. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.01

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to St Pauli's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 23.7% 7D: 18.0% 15D: 11.8% 30D: 19.1%

Model insight

St Pauli – HNK Gorica Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.01. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample388

Win Rate48.2%

Profit-16.38u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	South East United FC - Launceston United	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Changchun Dazhong (W) - Sichuan Jiannanchun Women	2.13	1.04%
LOSS	Shaanxi Zhidan (W) - Zhejiang Hangzhou (W)	2.00	1.04%
WIN	Marconi Stallions U20 - Sydney United 58 U20	2.23	1.31%
LOSS	Kaisar Kyzylorda - FK Kaspyi Aktau	1.96	1.31%
WIN	JK Tallinna Kalev - JK Nomme United II	1.90	1.31%
LOSS	Vasco da Gama U20 - Botafogo RJ U20	1.85	1.04%
WIN	Servette - St Etienne	2.11	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.01

Kickoff

Lug 19, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Starts in 4h 4m

Updated

Updated 9h 47m ago