Model: TIPPSH

Tauranga City AFC vs Bay Olympic

PREDICTION

@ 1.81

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 20, 2026 7:00 AM

ResultLOSS1 - 2

StartStarted 45d 17h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 46d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tauranga City AFC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Tauranga City AFCGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

27/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.67First seen

Current1.81Now

Max odds1.84Highest point

Min odds1.67Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Tauranga City AFCHOME

Bay OlympicAWAY

LLWLW

Recent form

WWLLL

Avg goals scored

1.80

1.00

Defensive weakness

2.80

3.20

Shots on target for

4.00

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

8.20

Home splitL-W-L-D-W2.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-L-D0.60 scored / 2.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.81. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Northern League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.81

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Tauranga City AFC is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 12.3% 7D: -4.8% 15D: -5.0% 30D: 9.6%

Model insight

Tauranga City AFC – Bay Olympic Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.81. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample381

Win Rate47.5%

Profit-37.49u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Hapoel Kiryat Shmona - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	1.82	1.31%
WIN	Academia de Balompie Boliviano - Real Oruro	2.05	1.04%
LOSS	RTC FC - Thimphu FC	1.77	1.04%
LOSS	Lillestrøm 2 - Kongsvinger 2	1.92	1.31%
WIN	Torque Reserves - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves	1.99	1.04%
WIN	St Louis City II - Real Monarchs SLC	1.83	1.04%
LOSS	Real Frontera - Atletico El Vigia	2.04	1.04%
WIN	South Melbourne U23 - St Albans Saints U23	1.76	1.31%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves	1	1.99	1.31%	05 Jul 16:00
SalPa - JJK	1	1.88	1.04%	05 Aug 17:30
Keflavik - KA Akureyri	1	1.98	1.04%	05 Aug 20:00
Quilmes - Gimnasia Jujuy	1	1.94	1.04%	06 Aug 01:00
El Paso Locomotive FC - Monterey Bay FC	1	1.78	1.04%	06 Aug 03:00
Denver Summit FC (W) - North Carolina Courage (W)	1	1.95	1.04%	06 Aug 04:00
Gimpo FC - Chungbuk Cheongju	1	1.76	1.04%	07 Aug 12:30
UCD - Wexford FC	1	2.05	1.04%	07 Aug 20:45

Pick

1 @ 1.81

Kickoff

Giu 20, 2026 7:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Started 45d 17h ago

Updated

Updated 46d ago