Toluca vs Unam Pumas
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Toluca. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: TolucaValue Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.70. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.89% based on n=1157 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Mexico Liga MX (mx). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.
AI Match Insight
The market is strongly leaning toward Toluca, but the statistical edge looks less pronounced. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Toluca's attacking profile.
Toluca – Unam Pumas Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Santa Cruz Acre U20 - Independencia FC U20 | 1.62 | -3.82% |
| LOSS | GKS Tychy 71 - MSK Povazska Bystrica | 1.73 | -1.89% |
| WIN | NEC - Al Fayha | 1.67 | -3.82% |
| LOSS | Shanghai Port U20 - Shandong Taishan U20 | 1.50 | -3.38% |
| WIN | Viimsi JK (W) - Saku Sporting (W) | 1.70 | -1.89% |
| LOSS | FC Baleine Shimonoseki - Variamore Aki | 1.62 | -3.38% |
| LOSS | Wisla Krakow - SK Artis Brno | 1.73 | -3.38% |
| WIN | Taubate U20 - Guaratingueta U20 | 1.62 | -3.38% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Aurora - Oriente Petrolero | 1 | 1.62 | -3.38% | 19 Jul 02:30 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U19 - FA Tartu Kalev | 1 | 1.73 | -3.82% | 19 Jul 11:30 |
| JK Trans Narva II - Parnu JK Vaprus II | 1 | 1.53 | -1.89% | 19 Jul 11:30 |