Model: TIPPSA
Getafe – Rayo Vallecano
PREDICTION
2
@ 4.67
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 03, 2026 6:15 PM
ResultWIN0 - 2
StartStarted 23d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.38% · n=79
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.80% · n=30
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 23d 21h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-W-L-W | W-W-D-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-W (home) | W-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.67 scored / 1.33 conceded | 1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.00 for / 3.60 against | 6.60 for / 4.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.00 for / 3.33 against (home) | 4.33 for / 5.33 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Rayo Vallecano. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Rayo Vallecano has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.16First seen
Current4.68Now
Max odds4.68Highest point
Min odds4.12Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Getafe – Rayo Vallecano Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.67. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.38% across 79 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is ELITE, with a historical expected ROI of 10.80% across 30 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample15
Win Rate33.3%
Profit+7.88u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Lyon - Lens | 4.60 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | Dijon - US Orleans 45 | 4.50 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | FC Sevlievo - Belasitsa | 4.87 | -0.56% |
| LOSS | Zira IK - FK Gabala | 4.44 | -2.42% |
| LOSS | Jacuipense - Atletico Alagoinhas | 4.42 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | Auckland City - Fencibles United | 4.52 | -2.42% |
| WIN | Deportivo Cuenca - Orense | 4.42 | -0.38% |
| LOSS | Jippo II - PK-37 | 4.77 | -0.56% |
Pick
2 @ 4.67
Kickoff
Mag 03, 2026 6:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.38% • n=79
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
10.80% • n=30
Start
Started 23d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 23d 21h ago