Model: TIPPSH

Austin FC II vs Tacoma Defiance

PREDICTION

@ 2.13

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 11, 2026 4:30 AM

ResultWIN3 - 0

StartStarted 85d 17h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 86d 7h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Austin FC II. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Austin FC IIGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

43/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.85First seen

Current2.13Now

Max odds2.13Highest point

Min odds1.85Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Austin FC IIHOME

Tacoma DefianceAWAY

WDD

Recent form

DWLL

Avg goals scored

1.33

2.00

Defensive weakness

0.67

1.75

Shots on target for

6.67

4.75

SoT conceded pressure

2.33

6.00

Home splitD1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-L1.50 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.13. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.86% based on n=299 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA MLS Next Pro League (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.13

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Austin FC II is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 0.4% 7D: -5.6% 15D: -5.8% 30D: 1.2%

Model insight

Austin FC II – Tacoma Defiance Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.13. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample316

Win Rate46.8%

Profit-11.58u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Respublika FA - Gazalkent	2.32	2.49%
WIN	Gold Coast Knights (W) - Brisbane City (W)	2.20	3.37%
LOSS	Club America U21 - Santos Laguna U21	2.30	2.49%
LOSS	Luton - Go Ahead Eagles	2.25	2.49%
LOSS	Connah's Quay - Caernarfon Town	2.35	2.49%
WIN	ROW 1964 Rybnik - Warta Gorzow	2.28	2.49%
WIN	Täfteå IK - Gottne IF	2.19	3.37%
LOSS	FC Yaypan Fergana - Fardu Ferghana	2.15	3.37%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00
Alianza Atletico - Cienciano	1	2.35	2.49%	06 Aug 22:00

Pick

1 @ 2.13

Kickoff

Mag 11, 2026 4:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.86% • n=299

Start

Started 85d 17h ago

Updated

Updated 86d 7h ago