Model: TIPPSA

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid

PREDICTION

@ 2.71

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 12, 2026 11:30 PM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 60d 12h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 60d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Atletico Madrid. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Atletico Madrid

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

48/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.77First seen

Current2.73Now

Max odds2.88Highest point

Min odds2.70Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

OsasunaHOME

Atletico MadridAWAY

LLLWL

Recent form

WLLWD

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.80

0.80

Shots on target for

4.40

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

2.00

Home splitL-L-W-D1.25 scored / 1.50 conceded

Away splitW-L-W-L-L1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.71. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.44% based on n=196 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain La Liga (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.71

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.44% · n=196

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.44% · n=196

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Atletico Madrid. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -10.3% 7D: -3.6% 15D: -10.2% 30D: -1.2%

Model insight

Osasuna – Atletico Madrid Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.71. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.44% and 4.44%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample95

Win Rate37.9%

Profit-0.48u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Fencibles United - East Coast Bays	2.81	4.96%
WIN	Santamarina Tandil - Club Villa Mitre	2.65	4.13%
LOSS	Deportes Copiapo - Santiago Wanderers	2.92	4.96%
WIN	New Zealand (W) - Haiti (W)	2.86	4.96%
WIN	Maldives - Afghanistan	2.63	4.13%
WIN	Chongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan	2.52	3.43%
LOSS	Deportes Recoleta - San Luis Quillota	2.56	3.43%
LOSS	IF Gnistan - SJK	2.51	4.13%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.71

Kickoff

Mag 12, 2026 11:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.44% • n=196

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.44% • n=196

Start

Started 60d 12h ago

Updated

Updated 60d 19h ago