Ariana FC Malmo – Tvååkers IF

Model: TIPPSH

Ariana FC Malmo vs Tvååkers IF

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.86
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 18, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 1
StartStarted 54d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 54d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ariana FC Malmo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ariana FC Malmo

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

27/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.75First seen
Current1.86Now
Max odds1.91Highest point
Min odds1.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Ariana FC MalmoHOME
VS
Tvååkers IFAWAY
LWWWL
Recent form
WWWLL
Avg goals scored
1.60
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.20
0.60
Shots on target for
4.20
2.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.60
Home splitL-W-D-D1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded
Away splitW-W-L-L-D0.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.86. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Sweden 1.div Södra (se). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.86
V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Ariana FC Malmo is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 41.1% 7D: 16.2% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 0.4%
Model insight

Ariana FC Malmo – Tvååkers IF Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.86. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample283
Win Rate46.3%
Profit-30.35u
Historical Similar Predictions
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LOSSDeportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn1.951.04%
LOSSVikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)1.971.04%
WINWarta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II2.051.04%
WINSlovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk1.961.31%
WINEC Juventude - Vila Nova1.841.04%
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Pick
1 @ 1.86
Kickoff
Mag 18, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Started 54d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 54d 14h ago
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