Model: TIPPSH
Ariana FC Malmo – Tvååkers IF
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 18, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 1
StartStarted 8d 13h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 8d 15h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Ariana FC Malmo | Tvååkers IF |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-W-W-W-L | W-W-W-L-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Home/Away form | L-W-D-D (home) | W-W-L-L-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded | 0.60 scored / 1.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 3.20 against | 2.00 for / 4.60 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.75 for / 3.25 against (home) | 1.60 for / 4.40 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Ariana FC Malmo has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.75First seen
Current1.95Now
Max odds2.10Highest point
Min odds1.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Ariana FC Malmo – Tvååkers IF Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample71
Win Rate47.9%
Profit-3.33u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Cape Town City - Milford FC | 1.91 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Scherpenheuvel - Inter Willemstad | 1.84 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Penarol Reserves - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves | 1.81 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Deportivo Muniz - Fenix | 2.25 | 1.59% |
| LOSS | Rabotnicki Skopje - Tikves Kavadarci | 2.19 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Sandefjord - Fredrikstad | 1.94 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Chattanooga FC - Carolina Core FC | 1.98 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Manauara EC - Manaus | 1.83 | 1.04% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duhok - Al Kahrabaa | 1 | 2.20 | 1.04% | 27 May 17:00 |
| Molde U19 - Kristiansund BK U19 | 1 | 1.95 | 1.31% | 27 May 18:30 |
| Belgrano Reserves - Quilmes Reserves | 1 | 2.10 | 1.31% | 27 May 20:00 |
| FC Champagne Sport - Stade Lausanne-Ouchy II | 1 | 2.11 | 1.04% | 27 May 20:00 |
| Wieczysta Krakow - Polonia Warsaw | 1 | 1.90 | 1.31% | 28 May 17:30 |
| National Bank - Al Ittihad Al Sakandary | 1 | 2.03 | 1.04% | 29 May 19:00 |
| EC Juventude - America MG | 1 | 1.88 | 1.31% | 30 May 02:00 |
| Charleston Battery - Detroit City FC | 1 | 1.89 | 1.04% | 31 May 00:00 |
Pick
1 @ 2.00
Kickoff
Mag 18, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Started 8d 13h ago
Updated
Updated 8d 15h ago