Model: TIPPSH
Aris Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.20
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 22, 2026 6:30 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 4
StartStarted 50d ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 50d 2h ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Aris Limassol. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Aris LimassolValue Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
32/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.10First seen
Current2.33Now
Max odds3.10Highest point
Min odds2.32Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Aris LimassolHOME
VS
AEK LarnacaAWAY
LLLWL
Recent form
WDDWL
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.60
Defensive weakness
2.40
1.40
Shots on target for
6.60
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.60
4.80
Home splitL-W-W-D2.00 scored / 1.25 conceded
Away splitW-D-L-D-D1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.20. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Cyprus Division 1 (cy). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.
Pick1
Odd2.20
V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh
AI Match Insight
The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Aris Limassol is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 22.9%
7D: 21.6%
15D: 8.9%
30D: 0.8%
Model insight
Aris Limassol – AEK Larnaca Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.20. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample238
Win Rate47.1%
Profit+1.18u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes | 2.10 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 1.97 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Nublense - O'Higgins | 2.39 | 1.41% |
| WIN | Warta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II | 2.05 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Slovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk | 1.96 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | Gimcheon Sangmu FC - Bucheon | 2.06 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Maldonado - Albion FC | 2.10 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Cheonan City - Gimhae FC 2008 | 2.19 | 1.31% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Wanderers - Union Espanola | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 30 May 18:30 |
| Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves | 1 | 1.99 | 1.31% | 05 Jul 16:00 |
| Boca Juniors Reserves - River Plate Reserves | 1 | 2.40 | 1.59% | 05 Jul 19:00 |
| Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn | 1 | 1.95 | 1.04% | 11 Jul 20:00 |
| Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II | 1 | 2.07 | 1.04% | 12 Jul 04:00 |
| Barra FC - Santa Cruz FC | 1 | 2.28 | 1.59% | 12 Jul 16:00 |
| GAIS - Elfsborg | 1 | 1.95 | 1.04% | 12 Jul 16:30 |
| Figueirense - Volta Redonda | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 14 Jul 01:30 |
Pick
1 @ 2.20
Kickoff
Mag 22, 2026 6:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Started 50d ago
Updated
Updated 50d 2h ago