Model: TIPPSH

Birkenhead United vs Auckland City

PREDICTION

@ 1.93

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 20, 2026 10:00 AM

ResultWIN3 - 2

StartStarted 48d 7h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 48d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Birkenhead United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Birkenhead UnitedGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.83First seen

Current1.93Now

Max odds1.93Highest point

Min odds1.83Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Birkenhead UnitedHOME

Auckland CityAWAY

WLWWW

Recent form

LWDDW

Avg goals scored

3.00

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.00

Shots on target for

9.40

4.40

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

5.60

Home splitW-L-W-W-W3.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-W-D1.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.93. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Northern League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.93

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Birkenhead United's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 12.3% 7D: -4.8% 15D: -5.0% 30D: 9.6%

Model insight

Birkenhead United – Auckland City Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.93. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample493

Win Rate48.9%

Profit-25.18u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Gold Coast United (W) - Capalaba (W)	1.81	1.04%
LOSS	Thor/THK/Vols/Magni U19 - Throttur Reykjavik/SR/Hamar U19	2.01	1.04%
WIN	Freiburg (W) - Nurnberg (W)	1.82	1.31%
WIN	Motagua - CD FAS	1.83	1.04%
WIN	Academia Puerto Cabello - Caracas	1.85	1.04%
WIN	Monaco - Getafe	1.96	1.04%
WIN	Queanbeyan City - Tuggeranong Utd	1.92	1.31%
LOSS	Queanbeyan City U23 - Tuggeranong United U23	1.88	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 1.93

Kickoff

Giu 20, 2026 10:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Started 48d 7h ago

Updated

Updated 48d 19h ago