Model: TipA1

Ferrymead Bays vs Coastal Spirit

PREDICTION

@ 2.60

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 17, 2026 11:15 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2d 1h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.85% · n=441

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Coastal Spirit. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Coastal Spirit

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

55/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.60First seen

Current2.68Now

Max odds2.68Highest point

Min odds2.60Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Ferrymead BaysHOME

Coastal SpiritAWAY

DLLLW

Recent form

WWWLW

Avg goals scored

1.60

2.60

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.20

Shots on target for

4.00

7.20

SoT conceded pressure

2.60

3.80

Home splitL-W-W-W-L2.40 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitW-W-W-D-L2.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.60. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.85% based on n=441 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Southern League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.60

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.85% · n=441

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Coastal Spirit has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -67.6% 7D: 7.7% 15D: 11.0% 30D: 15.2%

Model insight

Ferrymead Bays – Coastal Spirit Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.60. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.85% across 441 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample137

Win Rate40.1%

Profit+0.85u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	CFD La Nororiental - Molino Viejo	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	ABB U19 - CDT Real Oruro U19	2.63	4.27%
LOSS	Marcilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	HPS - Reipas	2.50	4.27%
WIN	Odd BK - Haugesund	2.70	4.27%
LOSS	SC Kalsdorf - FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2.60	4.27%
WIN	Gold Coast Knights U23 - Moreton City Excelsior U23	2.50	4.27%
LOSS	Modbury Vista Reserves (W) - Salisbury Inter Reserves (W)	2.50	4.27%

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Tijuana U19 - Tigres UANL U19	2	2.50	4.27%	16 Jul 21:45
Sydney FC U21 - Manly Utd	2	2.63	4.27%	17 Jul 11:30
Lions FC (W) - Brisbane City (W)	2	2.45	4.27%	18 Jul 11:00

Pick

2 @ 2.60

Kickoff

Lug 17, 2026 11:15 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.85% • n=441

Start

Starts in 2d 1h

Updated

Updated 9m ago