Model: TIPPSH

Karonga United vs Creck SC

PREDICTION

@ 1.87

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 26, 2026 4:30 PM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 21h 52m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 23h 56m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Karonga United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Karonga UnitedGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.067 | A: 0.011

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

27/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.85First seen

Current1.87Now

Max odds1.89Highest point

Min odds1.84Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Karonga UnitedHOME

Creck SCAWAY

WLWLD

Recent form

LLLLW

Avg goals scored

1.40

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.40

Shots on target for

4.00

2.00

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

5.20

Home splitW-W-L-D-W1.40 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-L-W-W-L1.40 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.87. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Malawi Super League (mw). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.87

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Karonga United has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: -18.3% 7D: 2.0% 15D: 9.7% 30D: 20.3%

Model insight

Karonga United – Creck SC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.87. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample373

Win Rate47.5%

Profit-31.69u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Police AC - Aryan FC	1.90	1.04%
LOSS	Cruzeiro - Botafogo	1.80	1.04%
WIN	Fuerte San Francisco Reserves - CD Platense Zacatecoluca Reserves	2.01	1.31%
LOSS	CD Aguila Reserves - CD Luis Angel Firpo Reserves	1.99	1.04%
WIN	Eintracht Frankfurt - Trabzonspor	2.00	1.04%
LOSS	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE - SC Sopron	1.89	1.04%
WIN	Ujpest II - BKV Elore SC	1.83	1.04%
LOSS	Malmo FF - Elfsborg	1.87	1.04%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves	1	1.99	1.31%	05 Jul 16:00
Lokomotiv Tashkent - Sogdiana Jizzakh	1	1.79	1.31%	27 Jul 17:00
CRB - Vila Nova	1	1.95	1.31%	28 Jul 00:30
Union Espanola - Deportes Recoleta	1	1.85	1.31%	28 Jul 01:00
Neftchi Fergana - Navbahor Namangan	1	1.78	1.31%	28 Jul 17:00
CA Tigre - Nacional De Football	1	2.08	1.04%	29 Jul 00:00
Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Tulsa	1	1.92	1.04%	30 Jul 01:00
Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	1	1.98	1.04%	31 Jul 00:30

Pick

1 @ 1.87

Kickoff

Lug 26, 2026 4:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 21h 52m ago

Updated

Updated 23h 56m ago