St Patricks – Derry City

Model: TIPPSH

St Patricks vs Derry City

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.76
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 31, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 4d 4h
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is St Patricks. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: St PatricksGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.026 | A: 0.040

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

26/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.62First seen
Current1.76Now
Max odds1.76Highest point
Min odds1.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

St PatricksHOME
VS
Derry CityAWAY
DWLDW
Recent form
LWLLL
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.40
2.00
Shots on target for
4.60
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
2.60
2.80
Home splitD-W-L-W-W2.00 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-L-L1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.76. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Republic of Ireland Premier Division (ie). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.76
V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -6.7% 7D: -3.9% 15D: 12.1% 30D: 16.9%
Model insight

St Patricks – Derry City Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.76. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample280
Win Rate45.7%
Profit-40.03u
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Pick
1 @ 1.76
Kickoff
Lug 31, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Starts in 4d 4h
Updated
Updated 6m ago
Torna in alto