Caracas vs Independiente Santa Fe
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Caracas. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: CaracasGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.042 | A: 0.103Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.85% based on n=519 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Copa Sudamericana. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Caracas's attacking profile.
Caracas – Independiente Santa Fe Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Persebaya Surabaya - Persija Jakarta | 3.25 | 3.56% |
| WIN | Zulte-Waregem - Sparta Rotterdam | 3.00 | 3.85% |
| WIN | BFA Vilnius - FK BE1 | 3.10 | 3.85% |
| WIN | Athlone Town (W) - Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 3.00 | 2.17% |
| LOSS | ONS (W) - FC Honka (W) | 3.10 | 2.17% |
| LOSS | CSD Flandria - Excursionistas | 3.00 | 3.85% |
| WIN | Feignies Aulnoye FC - Seraing United | 3.00 | 3.85% |
| WIN | Gyirmot SE - Csakvari TK | 3.00 | 2.17% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dag & Red - Boreham Wood | 1 | 3.20 | 3.85% | 28 Jul 20:30 |