Model: TIPPSH

Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay

PREDICTION

@ 2.50

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 16, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 1d 6h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 8h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Irtysh Pavlodar. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Irtysh PavlodarGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.010 | A: -0.063

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

36/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.77First seen

Current2.50Now

Max odds2.77Highest point

Min odds2.24Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Irtysh PavlodarHOME

Tobol KostanayAWAY

LLWWL

Recent form

WLLLD

Avg goals scored

1.20

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.60

Shots on target for

5.20

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

7.40

6.40

Home splitL-W-L-L-D1.00 scored / 1.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-D-D0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.50. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.59% based on n=2341 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Kazakhstan Premier League (kz). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.50

V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Irtysh Pavlodar. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Irtysh Pavlodar is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -22.9% 7D: -23.4% 15D: -0.3% 30D: 3.3%

Model insight

Irtysh Pavlodar – Tobol Kostanay Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.50. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample233

Win Rate41.2%

Profit-0.83u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Centro Espanol - Central Cordoba de Rosario	2.26	1.59%
WIN	Amedspor - Erzurumspor FK	2.34	1.59%
LOSS	Athens Kallithea - Larissa	2.72	1.59%
WIN	Guangdong Mingtu - Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	2.53	1.59%
LOSS	Ulsan HD - Gangwon FC	2.52	1.59%
WIN	Villa San Carlos - Defensores Unidos	2.25	1.59%
WIN	Juventude de Evora - Alcochetense	2.51	1.59%
WIN	Volsungur - IF Vestri	2.50	1.59%

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Pick

1 @ 2.50

Kickoff

Ago 16, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341

Start

Started 1d 6h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 8h ago