Guayaquil City – Club Atletico Libertad

Model: TIPPSA

Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad

PREDICTION
2
@ 4.23
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 16, 2026 1:30 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 19h 49m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.78% · n=52
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 22h 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Club Atletico Libertad. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Club Atletico LibertadGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.023 | A: 0.142

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

53/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.07First seen
Current4.23Now
Max odds4.23Highest point
Min odds3.89Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Guayaquil CityHOME
VS
Club Atletico LibertadAWAY
DDLDD
Recent form
DWWWW
Avg goals scored
0.80
2.00
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.60
Shots on target for
3.80
5.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.60
4.80
Home splitD-D-D-W-W1.00 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitD-W-L-D-L1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.23. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.78% based on n=52 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador LigaPro Serie A (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd4.23
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.78% · n=52
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Club Atletico Libertad shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Club Atletico Libertad's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -21.0% 7D: -19.8% 15D: 1.0% 30D: 4.1%
Model insight

Guayaquil City – Club Atletico Libertad Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.23. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.78% across 52 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample11
Win Rate9.1%
Profit-6.90u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSAthletico Paranaense - Bragantino4.193.92%
WINOsasuna - Al Ain SCC4.102.78%
LOSSAFC Wimbledon - Newport County4.203.92%
LOSSCD Los Chankas - Sport Boys4.073.92%
LOSSVaxjo (W) - IK Uppsala (W)4.173.92%
LOSSAskoe Oedt - Deutschlandsberger SC4.042.78%
LOSSJunior - Independiente Santa Fe4.103.92%
LOSSGremio Novorizontino - Ceara4.083.99%
Pick
2 @ 4.23
Kickoff
Ago 16, 2026 1:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.78% • n=52
Start
Started 19h 49m ago
Updated
Updated 22h 13m ago
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