Model: TIPPSH

Alhama CF (W) vs Villarreal (W)

PREDICTION

@ 1.93

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 16, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 3

StartStarted 1d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Alhama CF (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Alhama CF (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: -0.127 | A: 0.174

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.10First seen

Current2.08Now

Max odds2.12Highest point

Min odds1.92Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Alhama CF (W)HOME

Villarreal (W)AWAY

LLLDL

Recent form

WLDDW

Avg goals scored

1.00

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.60

1.40

Shots on target for

4.40

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

Home splitL-L-D-W-L1.60 scored / 2.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-D-W-D1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.93. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Women’s Friendly. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.93

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Alhama CF (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -20.8% 7D: -18.3% 15D: -0.3% 30D: 3.5%

Model insight

Alhama CF (W) – Villarreal (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.93. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample656

Win Rate51.5%

Profit+1.39u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Pachuca U21 - Puebla U21	2.15	1.04%
WIN	Rio Verde - Goianesia	2.02	1.04%
LOSS	Raufoss - Asane	2.01	1.04%
WIN	Molde - Tromso	2.11	1.31%
WIN	Los Angeles FC II - Tacoma Defiance	1.89	1.04%
WIN	US Hostert - FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Ingulets Petrovo - Nyva Ternopil	2.10	1.04%
WIN	SK Sturm Graz (W) - FC Salzburg (W)	1.90	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.93

Kickoff

Ago 16, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Started 1d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 4h ago