Model: TIPPSA

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle

PREDICTION

@ 2.54

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 19, 2026 4:30 AM

ResultWIN0 - 1

StartStarted 1d 4h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Independiente del Valle. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Independiente del ValleGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.017 | A: -0.008

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

45/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.51First seen

Current2.54Now

Max odds2.64Highest point

Min odds2.50Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Deportes TolimaHOME

Independiente del ValleAWAY

LWLWL

Recent form

WWWWW

Avg goals scored

1.40

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.60

0.40

Shots on target for

5.80

5.40

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

2.00

Home splitL-W-L-W-W1.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 0.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.54. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Copa Libertadores. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.54

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 57.0% 7D: -3.6% 15D: -1.0% 30D: 3.3%

Model insight

Deportes Tolima – Independiente del Valle Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.54. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample167

Win Rate44.3%

Profit+18.85u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Honiara City FC - Green Shield FC	2.71	3.59%
WIN	Pointe Michel FC - We United FC	2.38	4.13%
WIN	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	2.65	3.59%
WIN	Sportivo Trinidense (W) - Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	2.54	4.13%
LOSS	Orlando City SC - FC Cincinnati	2.72	3.59%
WIN	Crawley Town - Crewe	2.59	4.13%
WIN	FC Utrecht - AZ	2.47	3.59%
LOSS	CA Brown de Adrogue U20 - Estudiantes de Buenos Aires U20	2.64	3.59%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.54

Kickoff

Ago 19, 2026 4:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.13% • n=261

Start

Started 1d 4h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 6h ago