Sacramento Republic – Phoenix Rising FC

Model: TIPPSH

Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.99
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 23, 2026 7:00 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 12h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 16h 8m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sacramento Republic. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sacramento RepublicGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.077 | A: 0.018

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.75First seen
Current1.99Now
Max odds2.01Highest point
Min odds1.75Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sacramento RepublicHOME
VS
Phoenix Rising FCAWAY
DWDLW
Recent form
DWLDD
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.20
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.00
Shots on target for
4.20
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
1.80
2.60
Home splitD-W-W-W-L2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-L-D-L-L1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.99. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to USA USL Championship (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.99
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Sacramento Republic. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Sacramento Republic is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 25.6% 7D: 7.0% 15D: 1.3% 30D: 3.5%
Model insight

Sacramento Republic – Phoenix Rising FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.99. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample829
Win Rate49.5%
Profit-23.69u
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LOSSRapid Vienna (W) - SCR Altach (W)1.841.04%
LOSSChaves - AVS1.831.04%
LOSSSochaux U19 - Nancy U191.951.04%
LOSSJK Tammeka Tartu II - Johvi FC Phoenix1.931.04%
LOSSTauro FC Reserves - Alianza FC Reserves1.781.04%
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Pick
1 @ 1.99
Kickoff
Ago 23, 2026 7:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 12h ago
Updated
Updated 16h 8m ago
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