Leixoes – UD Leiria

Model: TIPPSH

Leixoes vs UD Leiria

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.32
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 22, 2026 2:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 13h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Leixoes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LeixoesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.009 | A: -0.078

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.13First seen
Current2.32Now
Max odds2.50Highest point
Min odds2.13Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeixoesHOME
VS
UD LeiriaAWAY
WLWWW
Recent form
LLLDL
Avg goals scored
2.20
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.00
1.80
Shots on target for
5.80
4.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
4.60
Home splitW-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-L-D1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.32. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.32
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Leixoes a useful statistical edge. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Leixoes's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -0.4% 7D: -14.4% 15D: -1.4% 30D: 2.4%
Model insight

Leixoes – UD Leiria Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.32. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample218
Win Rate42.7%
Profit-4.94u
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WINRostov - Lokomotiv Moscow2.492.49%
LOSSFC Gagra - FC Spaeri2.302.49%
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Pick
1 @ 2.32
Kickoff
Ago 22, 2026 2:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Starts in 2d 13h
Updated
Updated 6m ago
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