Model: TIPPSH
Alverca B vs Benfica e Castelo Branco
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 06, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 1
StartStarted 1d 15h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 18h ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Alverca B. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Alverca BGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.129 | A: -0.055Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
28/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.91First seen
Current2.00Now
Max odds2.00Highest point
Min odds1.91Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Alverca BHOME
VS
Benfica e Castelo BrancoAWAY
LLWWL
Recent form
WLLWL
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.40
Defensive weakness
0.80
2.60
Shots on target for
3.25
4.80
SoT conceded pressure
2.00
4.80
Home splitL-W-L1.67 scored / 0.67 conceded
Away splitW-L-W-L-W1.60 scored / 1.80 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.00. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Campeonato Nacional (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.
Pick1
Odd2.00
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.
Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 3.1%
7D: 12.6%
15D: 11.6%
30D: 6.9%
Model insight
Alverca B – Benfica e Castelo Branco Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample1106
Win Rate48.8%
Profit-39.31u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Inter Playa del Carmen - Pioneros de Cancun | 2.00 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | VJS Vantaa II - ToTe | 2.03 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Torque Reserves - Liverpool Montevideo Reserves | 2.01 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Penarol Reserves - Boston River Reserves | 1.88 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Panathinaikos U19 - PAOK Salonika U19 | 2.10 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Mineros - Atletico Avila | 1.86 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Marbella FC - Atletico Sanluqueno | 2.11 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Eupen II - La Calamine | 2.06 | 1.31% |
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| Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves | 1 | 1.99 | 1.31% | 05 Jul 16:00 |
| Birmingham Legion FC - New Mexico United | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 27 Jul 01:00 |
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| NK Osijek - NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 1.98 | 1.31% | 15 Aug 21:00 |
| Alajuelense (W) - Saprissa (W) | 1 | 1.75 | 1.04% | 20 Aug 04:00 |
| Tondela - Academica | 1 | 1.90 | 1.04% | 21 Aug 21:15 |
| Leixoes - UD Leiria | 1 | 2.13 | 1.31% | 22 Aug 12:00 |
Pick
1 @ 2.00
Kickoff
Set 06, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 1d 15h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 18h ago