Model: TIPPSH

Ariana FC Malmo vs Tvååkers IF

PREDICTION

@ 2.00

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 18, 2026 9:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 1

StartStarted 54d 13h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 54d 15h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ariana FC Malmo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ariana FC Malmo

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

29/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.75First seen

Current1.95Now

Max odds2.10Highest point

Min odds1.70Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Ariana FC MalmoHOME

Tvååkers IFAWAY

LWWWL

Recent form

WWWLL

Avg goals scored

1.60

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.60

Shots on target for

4.20

2.00

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

4.60

Home splitL-W-D-D1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-L-D0.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.00. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Sweden 1.div Södra (se). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.00

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Ariana FC Malmo has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 41.1% 7D: 16.2% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 0.4%

Model insight

Ariana FC Malmo – Tvååkers IF Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample345

Win Rate47.0%

Profit-24.73u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II	2.07	1.04%
WIN	Houston Dynamo II - St Louis City II	1.89	1.31%
WIN	Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes	2.10	1.04%
LOSS	Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	1.97	1.04%
WIN	Warta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II	2.05	1.04%
WIN	Slovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk	1.96	1.31%
WIN	EC Juventude - Vila Nova	1.84	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.00

Kickoff

Mag 18, 2026 9:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Started 54d 13h ago

Updated

Updated 54d 15h ago