Model: TipA1

Atletico Astorga vs Portugalete

PREDICTION

@ 2.75

StatusUpcoming

KickoffSet 05, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 13h 22m

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.82% · n=246

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Portugalete. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PortugaleteGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.016 | A: -0.020

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

49/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.75First seen

Current2.80Now

Max odds2.80Highest point

Min odds2.75Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Atletico AstorgaHOME

PortugaleteAWAY

LWDDD

Recent form

WLDWW

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.60

Shots on target for

3.80

6.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.60

2.00

Home splitL-W-D-D-W1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-L-W1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.75. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.82% based on n=246 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.75

V2 BandHIGHROI 5.52% · n=654

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.82% · n=246

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Portugalete has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. Portugalete is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -2.7% 7D: -4.8% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 4.8%

Model insight

Atletico Astorga – Portugalete Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.75. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.52% across 654 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.82% across 246 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample190

Win Rate36.3%

Profit+0.96u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Pelikan Lowicz - MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2.50	6.36%
LOSS	Estudiantes Merida - UCV	2.80	5.52%
LOSS	El Seka El Hadid - Maleyat Kafr El Zayat	3.00	5.52%
LOSS	Deportes Limache - Nublense	2.80	5.52%
WIN	FK Vora - FK Egnatia	2.55	6.36%
WIN	Montevideo Wanderers Reserves - Torque Reserves	2.90	5.52%
LOSS	Spennymoor Town - Hednesford	2.90	5.52%
LOSS	CD Achuapa - CSD Chiquimulilla	2.80	5.52%

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Pick

2 @ 2.75

Kickoff

Set 05, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 5.52% • n=654

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.82% • n=246

Start

Starts in 13h 22m

Updated

Updated 9m ago