Caracas – Independiente Santa Fe

Model: TipTromba35H

Caracas vs Independiente Santa Fe

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 31, 2026 4:30 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 13h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 15m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Caracas. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CaracasGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.042 | A: 0.103

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

48/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.63First seen
Current3.11Now
Max odds3.11Highest point
Min odds2.63Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CaracasHOME
VS
Independiente Santa FeAWAY
LDLDW
Recent form
LWWDW
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.20
Defensive weakness
2.00
0.60
Shots on target for
4.20
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
5.00
Home splitD-L-D-W-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-W-D-D-L0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.85% based on n=519 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Copa Sudamericana. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Caracas is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -26.4% 7D: -2.1% 15D: 11.0% 30D: 15.7%
Model insight

Caracas – Independiente Santa Fe Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.85% across 519 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample130
Win Rate32.3%
Profit-0.05u
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WINAthlone Town (W) - Czarni Sosnowiec (W)3.002.17%
LOSSONS (W) - FC Honka (W)3.102.17%
LOSSCSD Flandria - Excursionistas3.003.85%
WINFeignies Aulnoye FC - Seraing United3.003.85%
WINGyirmot SE - Csakvari TK3.002.17%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Dag & Red - Boreham Wood13.203.85%28 Jul 20:30
Pick
1 @ 3.00
Kickoff
Lug 31, 2026 4:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.85% • n=519
Start
Starts in 2d 13h
Updated
Updated 15m ago
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